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Commodities by Sea: What World Seaborne Trade Tells Buyers and Sellers

Most bulk commodities travel by sea. The numbers for 2024 show which cargoes grew, which fell and why the distance matters as much as the weight, with the outlook for the next years.

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The volume in 2024

According to the UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025, which uses data from Clarksons Research, maritime trade reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, an increase of 2.2 percent. This is above the 1.8 percent average of 2013 to 2023 and below the 2.9 percent average of 2003 to 2023. Growth is slower than it was, and UNCTAD points to trade barriers, policy uncertainty and a weaker link between trade and economic growth.

Distance counts: a record in ton-miles

A ton-mile is one ton of cargo carried one nautical mile. In 2024 world seaborne trade reached 66,781 billion ton-miles, up 5.9 percent, the fastest growth since 2021. UNCTAD explains it by longer routes: the rerouting of ships around the Red Sea, restrictions on the Panama Canal until the middle of 2024, firm demand from Asia and changes in the flows from Russia. For a buyer on CFR or CIF terms this matters, because a longer route can raise the freight that is part of the price. See FOB vs CFR vs CIF.

Commodities that grew in 2024

UNCTAD lists the best performing cargoes by tons. LPG grew by 7.6 percent (LPG), steel products by 5.2 percent, iron ore by 3.5 percent (iron ore) and coal by 3.3 percent (thermal coal). The report names the surge in Chinese steel exports, and solid Chinese steel production and industrial activity behind iron ore. In ton-miles iron ore grew by 6.4 percent, because supply from Australia and, above all, Brazil travelled the long way to China. See also steel billets and hot rolled coils.

Commodities that fell or grew slowly

Crude oil fell by 1.5 percent and oil products by 0.7 percent. Chemicals grew by 1.1 percent, because China bought less after it expanded its own petrochemical capacity. Grain grew by 1.8 percent in tons and fell by 0.7 percent in ton-miles, with a sharp decline in exports from Brazil and softer Chinese demand because of stockpiling and the effect of Chinese tariffs on grain from the United States. See wheat and the corn exporters.

The outlook to 2030

UNCTAD projects the growth of total seaborne trade in tons at 0.5 percent in 2025 and 1.0 percent in 2026, then 2.2 percent in 2027, 2.3 percent in 2028, 2.2 percent in 2029 and 2.3 percent in 2030. These are projections based on the expected growth of the world economy and its trade, and they change with trade policy and events.

What it means for a seller

A seller on FOB terms does not pay the freight, but the buyer does, and a higher freight changes what the buyer can offer. Sellers who ship to far destinations should expect buyers to compare the delivered cost, not only the FOB price. Offer shipment windows that match the real loading schedule of the port, and name the quantity with a tolerance. See how commodity prices are quoted.

What it means for a buyer

A buyer on CFR or CIF terms should ask which route the ship will take and how long the voyage lasts, because the freight is built into the price. When a route changes, the delivery date can change too, so keep some room in the shipment period. On Comdity a buy request is on CFR and CIF terms, and the buyer can say it is open to FOB offers, which lets the buyer arrange the freight. Use offer and counteroffer to bring the terms together.

Source and notes

Source: UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I, text of section A and Tables I.1 and I.2, based on Clarksons Research and UNCTAD calculations. The figures are for 2024 and later revisions may differ. This page is general information, not a forecast of freight or commodity prices. For the shipping side, see the Shipfixing guide to world seaborne trade.

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